Markets return from a holiday-shortened week with the Iran ceasefire under renewed strain — US strikes on Iranian missile and radar sites over the weekend prompted Tehran threats of retaliation and a brief halt to Strait of Hormuz traffic before both sides paused and envoys regrouped in Doha on Monday. Energy prices remain well below war highs (Brent ~$74, WTI ~$70) but geopolitical headline risk stays elevated heading into Wednesday's FOMC Minutes, the week's key macro catalyst given June's hawkish dot-plot flip (9 of 18 members now project a 2026 hike). Delta's Friday report kicks off Q2 earnings season in earnest, with the major banks following on July 14. Equities enter the week near record highs after the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite both closed at fresh peaks on Monday.
EPS expected down sharply YoY on a more than $2B fuel expense increase tied to the Iran conflict, though Delta has beaten estimates in four straight quarters. Shares +30.6% YTD; dividend raised to $0.215/share on June 18. Watch September-quarter guidance for read-through on fuel recapture and capacity discipline.
All four now confirmed for Tuesday, July 14 BMO — the traditional bank-earnings kickoff. Citigroup's estimate implies the steepest YoY growth (+33.7%), while Wells Fargo is the only one of the four seeing estimates trend lower into the print. Wells Fargo cleared its 2026 stress test on June 24 with an unchanged 2.5% stress capital buffer and flagged an 11% Q3 dividend hike. Sets the tone for the broader S&P 500 Q2 print, which FactSet forecasts to grow 22.0% YoY.
Wednesday's minutes are the week's main event — first detailed look at why 9 of 18 members now project a 2026 hike under new Chair Warsh.
Weekend strikes and a fragile pause keep oil headline-sensitive. Brent ~$74, WTI ~$70 — well off war highs but vulnerable to a Doha breakdown.
First major Q2 print of the cycle. Fuel cost commentary and September-quarter guidance will frame expectations into bank earnings on July 14.
Passive fund buying around the Tuesday inclusion date is a technical flow worth tracking alongside any incumbent member's exit.
NVDA, DELL, MRVL, SNOW, CRM and MU all beat-and-raised in recent weeks. Watch semis and hyperscaler names for continuation versus a digestion phase.
Thursday's initial claims are the first labor read since the early June payrolls report ahead of the July NFP release in early August.
| Ticker | Company | When | EPS Est. | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAL | Delta Air Lines | Fri BMO | $1.43–1.48 | Q2 2026. Week's headline print. |
| WFC | Wells Fargo | Jul 14 BMO | $1.74 | Confirmed — traditional bank-earnings opener. |
| JPM | JPMorgan Chase | Jul 14 BMO | $5.49 | EPS est. +10.7% YoY; revenue est. $48.7B. |
| C | Citigroup | Jul 14 BMO | $2.62 | Adjusted EPS est. +33.7% YoY; revenue est. ~$23.2B. |
| BAC | Bank of America | Jul 14 BMO | $1.10 | EPS est. up from $0.89 YoY; revenue est. $30.26B. |